FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 335
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5254 (S17E02)
PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE
IMPRESSIVE IN OPTICAL OR RADIO ASPECTS. NEW REGION 5260 (N18E08)
EMERGED TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE IN A STRONG GROWTH PHASE. NEW
REGION 5261 (N18E62) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGIONS 5254 AND 5260.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM
EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS UNTIL
30/0800Z. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 47 NANOTESLAS OCCURRED AT
30/0801Z. THEREAFTER, THE FIELD WAS AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS. THESE EFFECTS MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED LATE ON
27 NOVEMBER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS TOMORROW AS THE PRESENT
DISTURBANCE DECLINES. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 DEC-03 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 NOV  140
PREDICTED   01 DEC-03 DEC  141/145/146
90 DAY MEAN        30 NOV  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 29 NOV  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 NOV  030/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 DEC-03 DEC  020/020-015/012-010/012