FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 334
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5254 (S18E15)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD, NONE OF WHICH
WERE IMPRESSIVE. THE REGION STILL HARBORS A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. PLAGE REGION 5252 (S28W75) REGENERATED INTO A
SIMPLE BIPOLE PRODUCING TWO SUBFLARES IN THE PROCESS. NEW
REGION 5259 (N21E07) EMERGED TODAY AS A SMALL UNIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5254 DUE TO ITS MODERATE LEVEL OF MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE FIRST AND SECOND DAYS IN RESPONSE
TO A LARGE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT THAT DEPARTED THE
SUN ON 27 NOVEMBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 NOV  143
PREDICTED   30 NOV-02 DEC  145/147/148
90 DAY MEAN        29 NOV  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  015/018-018/020-015/012