FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 326
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5240 (N22W33) PRO-
DUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES: THE LARGEST WAS A C8/SN AT 1656Z.
THIS REGION EXHIBITS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN THE TRAILER
AND THIS HAS BEEN THE PART OF THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. REGIONS 5235 (N15W57) AND 5241
(N28W16) HAVE ALSO PRODUCED SOME SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. A TOTAL
OF FIVE NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 5249 (S30E59) AND 5151
(N17E80) ROTATED INTO VIEW AND EACH OF 5247 (S13W43), 5248
(N20W15), AND 5250 (S31E40) EMERGED ON THE DISK. SURGING WAS
OBSERVED ON THE WEST LIMB AT N32 (ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 5229)
AND AT N23, AND ON THE EAST LIMB AT N19, ASSOCIATED WITH REGION
5251. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5240 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 NOV-24 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 NOV  157
PREDICTED   22 NOV-24 NOV  160/162/170
90 DAY MEAN        21 NOV  162
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 NOV  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV  005/006-005/006-005/009