FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 325
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD: THE LARGEST WERE A C6/1N FROM
REGION 5241 (N27W04) AT 1641Z AND A C6/SN FROM REGION 5235
(N15W43) AT 1420Z. THESE TWO GROUPS AND REGION 5240 (N21W19)
ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES. NEW REGION 5246
(S38W12) EMERGED. SURGE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ON BOTH LIMBS:
ON THE WEST LIMB AT N20 (REGION 5228) AND S36 (REGION 5243),
AND ON THE EAST LIMB AT N16. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK
AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF ENERGETIC
FLARES FROM REGIONS 5235, 5240, AND 5241, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
UNSETTLED PERIODS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 NOV-23 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 NOV  147
PREDICTED   21 NOV-23 NOV  145/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        20 NOV  162
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 NOV  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  005/007-005/007-005/008