FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 324
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO C-CLASS FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD: THE LARGEST WAS A C2/SN FROM
REGION 5229 (N33W58). REGION 5229 CONTINUED TO DECAY SLOWLY
AND REGIONS 5240 (N20W06) AND 5241 (N27E10) EXHIBITED SLOW
STABLE GROWTH. REGION 5243 (S35W86) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY
AS IT BEGAN ROTATING OUT OF VIEW. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR
DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS
FROM REGION 5229, 5241 OR 5240.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. A BRIEF INTERVAL OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
UNSETTLED PERIODS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 NOV-22 NOV
CLASS M    15/15/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     02/02/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 NOV  156
PREDICTED   20 NOV-22 NOV  150/150/145
90 DAY MEAN        19 NOV  161
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 NOV  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV  003/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV  005/007-005/007-005/007