FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 323
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 18 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5229 (N33W45)
CONTINUED TO DECAY BUT PRODUCED MOST OF THE PERIOD'S C-CLASS
FLARES, ALTHOUGH REGIONS 5240 (N21E06) AND 5241 (N26E23) ALSO
CONTRIBUTED. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C6/1N FROM 5229 AT 1948Z.
REGION 5227 (S24W90) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY AS IT QUIETLY
EXITED THE SOLAR DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND
LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 5240 AND 5229 CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED MAGNETICALLY AND POSE A FAIR CHANCE FOR MODERATE
LEVELS. REGION 5229 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
CLASS M    35/30/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 NOV  166
PREDICTED   19 NOV-21 NOV  160/156/155
90 DAY MEAN        18 NOV  161
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 NOV  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  005/008-005/008-005/008