FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 322
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 17 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 5229 (N33W33) AND
5240 (N21E19) PRODUCED NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S SEVERAL C-CLASS
FLARES: THE LARGEST WERE A C9/SB AT 16/2149Z FROM 5229 AND A
C9/2B AT 17/1352 FROM REGION 5240. REGION 5229 CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT IS DECAYING SLOWLY. REGION
5240 IS GROWING AND HAS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION
5245 (S15W27) EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY. SURGING WAS OBSERVED
ON THE WEST LIMB AT ABOUT N21. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK
AND LIMBS WERE ESSENTIALLY STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 5229 AND 5240 CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY SOURCES
FOR ENERGETIC FLARES. REGION 5227 (S23W80) ALSO POSES A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE AS IT EXITS THE SOLAR DISK. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE UNTIL
1500Z WHEN CONDITIONS BECAME PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TOMORROW: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM SOME OF THE
NUMEROUS M-CLASS FLARES WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
CLASS M    80/75/70
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 NOV  180
PREDICTED   18 NOV-20 NOV  175/172/170
90 DAY MEAN        17 NOV  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 NOV  013/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  011/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  010/018-005/015-005/013