FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 318
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5229 (N32E18)
PRODUCED THREE M-CLASS EVENTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FLARES
WERE: AN M7/1B TENFLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEP AT 0539Z; AN
M3/1B WITH TYPE II AT 1635Z; AND AN M1/1N AT 2025Z. THE REGION
CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 50 SPOTS, BRIGHT PLAGE, AND HAS
UNDERGONE SUBSTANTIAL RESTRUCTURING SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY APPARENT IN THE
SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 5227 (S23W28) HAS ALSO EXHIBITED
PRONOUNCED GROWTH AND HAS MERGED WITH REGION 5236 WHICH WAS
LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST. THIS REGION GENERATED A C9/0F
FLARE AT 1318Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, THE MOST
NOTEWORTHY BEING 5240 (N21E77) WHICH PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES.
THIS NEW REGION IS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF OLD REGION 5200,
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TODAY. AT WEST LIMB REGION 5218
(N13W86) IS SURGING AS IT LEAVES THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 5229 HAS PROVEN ITSELF TO BE
A PROLIFIC M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCER AND MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT DURING THE INTERVAL. REGIONS 5218, 5227, AND 5240
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WELL-POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE, APPARENT IN TODAY'S 10830 DATA, SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FIELD ANY TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     30/30/30
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 NOV  171
PREDICTED   14 NOV-16 NOV  175/177/177
90 DAY MEAN        13 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 NOV  022/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  020/020-010/015-010/015