FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 317
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 12 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5229 (N33E31)
GENERATED AN M5/2B TENFLARE AT 1615Z WITH TYPE II SWEEP. THE
REGION PRODUCED LESSER FLARES TOO, AT A CADENCE OF ONE EVERY
FOUR HOURS DURING THE INTERVAL. STRUCTURALLY IT POSSESSES A
MODERATE DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
5237 (N17E01) WAS QUIET. THE LIMBS WERE ALSO QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
AT THE MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 5229 AND 5218 (N12W75) ARE GOOD
CANDIDATES FOR M-CLASS FLARES. ALSO, OLD REGION 5200
(N22, L=292), THE PRODUCER OF 6 M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION,
IS DUE AT EAST LIMB LATE TOMORROW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE MAY BE A CONSEQUENCE OF THE 08 NOV.
FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE ON 13 NOV. DUE TO A SMALL CORONAL HOLE
NOW CENTERED NEAR N10W05. THIS DAY-LONG ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/50
CLASS X    20/20/10
PROTON     20/20/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 NOV  156
PREDICTED   13 NOV-15 NOV  154/154/154
90 DAY MEAN        12 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 NOV  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV  016/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV  020/020-010/015-010/015