FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 316
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5218 (N12W63) LOST
SOME OF ITS COMPLICATED ASPECTS. IT ONLY PRODUCED A C7/1N FLARE
WITH MINOR RADIO PARAMETERS. REGION 5212 (S17W108) ROTATED PAST
THE WEST LIMB YESTERDAY, BUT CONTINUED TO SURGE AND PROBABLY WAS
THE RESPONSIBLE SITE FOR MANY UNASSOCIATED LOW X-RAY EVENTS.
THREE NEW ALPHA SPOT GROUPS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5218 PROVIDES A VERY SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF BOTH HIGH ACTIVITY AND A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION
5212 ALSO STILL SUPPLIES A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAJOR ACTIVITY.
THE THREE ABUTTED REGIONS IN THE EASTNORTHEAST (5131-N13E47,5133
N15E61, AND 5135-N15E74) ARE CAPABLE OF INTERACTION AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAJOR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A
SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 11/0753Z. IT MAY HAVE BEEN THE
RESULT OF THE LDXE OF 8/1253Z THAT HAD ASSOCIATED TYPES II AND
IV RADIO SWEEPS AND PRODUCED THE VERY WEAK 10MEV PROTON EVENT
LATER THAT DAY. ACTIVE CONDITIONS STARTED VERY LATE TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THE FIRST HALF. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE A VERY MINOR DISTURBANCE. THE LAST HALF IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 NOV  157
PREDICTED   12 NOV-14 NOV  160/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        11 NOV  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 NOV  014/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  024/018-016/015-012/018