FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 315
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
5231 (N13E62) PRODUCED AN M9/2N FLARE AT 10/0616Z WITH BIG RADIO
BURSTS AND BOTH TYPES II AND IV SWEEPS. A CME WAS ALSO REPORTED.
REGION 5218 (N12W50) SIMPLIFIED ITS MAGNETIC STRUCTURE AND WAS
RELATIVELY QUIET. REGION 5212 (S17W95) PRODUCED ONLY SURGING.
REGION 5229 (N33E57) WAS ERUPTIVE AND SUPPORTED LOW ACTIVITY. IT
IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED MAGNETICALLY. THREE OTHER NEW
REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5231 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HIGH
ACTIVITY AND A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGIONS 5212 AND 5218
ALSO SUPPORT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAJOR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. BRIEF MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THE FIRST TWO DAYS. A DISTURBANCE IN
RESPONSE TO THE 08/1253Z LDXE WITH TYPES II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS
SHOUD START SOON. THE LAST DAY SHOULD RECOVER TO RECURRENTLY
UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 NOV  152
PREDICTED   11 NOV-13 NOV  155/165/175
90 DAY MEAN        10 NOV  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 NOV  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  018/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  025/025-020/020-015/015