FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 314
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5218 (N11W36)
PRODUCED AN M9/1B FLARE WITH SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS ON ALL THE
MONITORED FREQUENCIES, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED.
IT GREW IN SOME PARAMETERS, AND STILL RETAINED ITS COMPLICATED
MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED IN THE EAST-
NORTHEAST SECTOR. REGION 5212 (S16W81) RETAINED MOST OF ITS
COMPLICATED IDENTITY, BUT STILL DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5218 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION 5212 ALSO CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE C3/2F FLARE
OF REGION 5218 AT 8/1253Z, PRODUCED A VERY WEAK 10MEV PROTON
EVENT THAT STARTED AT 8/2225Z AND ENDED AT 9/0810Z, WITH A
MAXIMUM OF ONLY 11 PFU AT 9/0725Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE C3/2F FLARE OF 8/1253Z WITH ITS
TYPES II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 NOV  156
PREDICTED   10 NOV-12 NOV  145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        09 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 NOV  011/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  016/025-025/035-020/018