FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 313
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5218 (N12W24)
PRODUCED A C3/2F FLARE WITH ASSOCIATED TYPES II AND IV RADIO
SWEEPS AT 8/1253Z. THE 2695MHZ BURST WAS 130SFU. THIS REGION
LOST SOME OF ITS SIZE IN THIS EVENT, BUT REMAINED MOSTLY THE
SAME OVERALL. REGION 5212 (S17W69) PRODUCED LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY, AND ALSO RETAINED ITS GENERAL CONFIGURATION. A 10MEV
PROTON ENHANCEMENT TO BELOW EVENT LEVEL THRESHOLD OCCURRED JUST
AFTER THE C3/2F FLARE. ANOTHER SIMPLE BETA REGION WAS NUMBERED
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5212 STILLL PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE,
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION 5218 PROVIDES A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAJOR EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THE FIRST
DAY AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE LEVELS RECOVER TO RECURRENTLY
LOWER CONDITIONS. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON
THE SECOND DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE C3/2F FLARE FROM REGION
5218 TODAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 NOV  146
PREDICTED   09 NOV-11 NOV  135/125/120
90 DAY MEAN        08 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 NOV  013/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  015/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  012/030-016/020-025/035