FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 310
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE PRODUCED BY REGIONS 5212 (S16W34) AND 5218
(N12E16). REGION 5212 REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET DESPITE ITS
COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 5222 (N21E26) AND
5223 (N33W37) WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES MAY OCCUR WITHIN REGION 5212
DUE TO ITS COMPLEXITY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
X-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. ACTIVE
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE
HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 NOV  169
PREDICTED   06 NOV-08 NOV  169/169/168
90 DAY MEAN        05 NOV  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 NOV  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  011/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  010/020-010/020-007/015