FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 308
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5212 (S17W06)
HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOPE IN BOTH SPOT COUNT AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY MAINTAINING A STRONG MAGNETIC DELTA
CONFIGURATION WITHIN THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE REGION. THE
REMAINING SPOTTED REGIONS WERE STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OCCURRED ON EITHER LIMB. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED: 5220 (N32W52), A SIMPLE BIPOLE, AND 5221
(S22E74), A SMALL UNIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF REGION 5212. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR X-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
CAUSE OF THE MINOR STORMING IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MINOR STORMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TOMORROW DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 NOV  167
PREDICTED   04 NOV-06 NOV  169/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        03 NOV  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 NOV  019/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  021/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  015/025-018/030-012/028