FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 305
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 31 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5212
(S16E34) HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS,
PRODUCING ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES.  NEW FLUX CONTINUES TO EMERGE
SOUTH OF THE LARGE LEADER SUNSPOT WHERE, IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, A DELTA CONFIGURATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  NEW REGION 5217 (N16E48) EMERGED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF REGION 5215 (N24E46) AS A SMALL BIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 5212.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
AT MIDDLE LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND MOSTLY ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 NOV-03 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 OCT  161
PREDICTED   01 NOV-03 NOV  155/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        31 OCT  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 OCT  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV  015/028-010/020-007/015