FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 302
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5200
(N22W62) CONTINUES A SLOW DECAY AND HAS ONLY PRODUCED A FEW
OPTICAL SUBFLARES.  REGION 5210 (N18E11) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY,
INCREASING IN AREA TENFOLD AND DEVELOPING PENUMBRA ON BOTH
LEADER AND FOLLOWER SUNSPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY.  REGION 5212
(S16E73) IS STILL ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB WITH ONLY
THE LEADER SPOTS COMPLETELY IN VIEW.  THIS REGION HAS BEEN
QUIET SINCE YESTERDAY'S M-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 5212 AND PERHAPS FROM 5200 BEFORE IT ROTATES BEYOND
THE WEST LIMB.  C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGION 5210.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY DUE TO A DISRUPTED FILAMENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 OCT-31 OCT
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 OCT  158
PREDICTED   29 OCT-31 OCT  158/155/145
90 DAY MEAN        28 OCT  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 OCT  006/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 OCT  008/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 OCT-31 OCT  007/015-007/015-010/025