FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 301
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. SURGE ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED ON THE EAST LIMB AT ABOUT S10 AND ERUPTED INTO A
M3.9/SF FLARE STARTING AT 1820Z AND REACHING MAXIMUM AT 1835Z.
ASSOCIATED LOOPS WERE OBSERVED TO EXTEND OUT TO .03 RADII, AND
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE OPTICAL FLARE AREA WAS
LOCATED BEHIND THE LIMB. THIS REGION WAS ASSIGNED SESC NUMBER
5212 AND IS PROBABLY THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 5175. TWO OTHER
NEW REGION ASSIGNMENTS WERE MADE: REGION 5210 (N29E23), A SIMPLE
BIPOLAR GROUP, AND REGION 5211 (N15E65), A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR
H-TYPE GROUP. THE LARGEST SUNSPOT REGION CURRENTLY ON THE DISK,
REGION 5200 (N21W50), CONTINUED TO DECAY AND PRODUCED ONLY ONE
SUBFLARE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION (ABOUT 75%) OF A FILAMENT CENTERED NEAR
N56E30 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
ANALYZE REGION 5212, THE GROUP IS PROBABLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL ENERGETIC FLARES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SOLAR
ACTIVITY LEVELS DURING ITS TRANSIT OF THE SOLAR DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH SOME BRIEF
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 OCT  163
PREDICTED   28 OCT-30 OCT  172/178/180
90 DAY MEAN        27 OCT  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 OCT  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  008/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  007/016-005/012-005/014