FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 300
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW WITH ONLY TWO C-CLASS
FLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGIONS 5200 (N21W36) AND 5207
(S26E43) WERE THE ONLY GROUPS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE WHAT LITTLE
FLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED. REGION 5200 IS STILL THE LARGEST GROUP
ON THE DISK BUT CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY AND QUIETLY. A NEW
REGION 5209 (N29W41) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLAR GROUP. SURGE
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE EAST LIMB AT ABOUT N17. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW. OLD REGION 5175 (S16, L-156), WHICH PRODUCED
THREE ENERGETIC FLARES ON ITS PREVIOUS TRANSIT IS DUE TO RETURN
TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF THE RETURN OF THIS REGION AND BECAUSE OF
THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVENESS OF THE SIZE OF REGION 5200 THERE
IS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS BECAME UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE.
THE INCREASE MAY INDICATE THE BEGINNINGS OF CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS TOMMOROW,
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH
OCCASIONAL BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 OCT  157
PREDICTED   27 OCT-29 OCT  165/172/175
90 DAY MEAN        26 OCT  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 OCT  003/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 OCT  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 OCT-29 OCT  015/020-007/016-005/014