FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 299
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5200 (N21W24)
PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A LONG DURATION C4.9/SF FLARE.
THE GROUP CONTINUES TO DECLINE SLOWLY AND WAS LESS ERUPTIVE
TODAY THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, THERE
WAS SOME INDICATION THAT NEW GROWTH MAY HAVE STARTED IN THE
LEADER PORTION OF THE REGION. REGIONS 5207 (S27E54) AND 5205
(N19E06) PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES. NEW REGION 5208 (N21E63)
WAS ASSIGNED DURING THE PERIOD. MINOR SURGING OCCURRED ON THE
WEST LIMB AT N30 AND ON THE EAST LIMB AT N20. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT GENERALLY LOW LEVELS WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MODERATE
LEVELS. REGION 5200 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE BUT THE
CURRENT DYNAMICS COULD DESTABILIZE THE GROUP AND TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED M-FLARE. OLD REGION 5175 (S16, L-156), WHICH PRODUCED
THREE ENERGETIC FLARES ON ITS PREVIOUS TRANSIT IS DUE TO RETURN
ON THE 27TH AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LEVELS AT THAT TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND WAS
QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECLINE TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL
BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 OCT-28 OCT
CLASS M    35/35/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 OCT  164
PREDICTED   26 OCT-28 OCT  165/172/178
90 DAY MEAN        25 OCT  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 OCT  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  017/024-010/020-007/016