FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 297
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 23 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5200 (N21E02)
PRODUCED ESSENTIALLY ALL OF TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST
OF WHICH WAS A C6/SN AT 22/2321Z. SEVERAL OF TODAY'S FLARES WERE
REMARKABLE IN THE PEAK FLUXES OF THE ASSOCIATED RADIO BURSTS
AT 245 AND 410 MHZ, WITH SIX BURSTS OF GREATER THAN 500 S.F.U.
SURGE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE WEST LIMB AT N25 (ASSOCIATED
WITH REGION 5193), AND AT S23 (FROM REGION 5203). THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT GENERALLY LOW LEVELS WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS
OF MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 5200, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
COMPLEX MAGNETICALLY, IS THE SOLE THREAT FOR M-CLASS FLARES AT
THIS TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
CLASS M    45/45/45
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 OCT  171
PREDICTED   24 OCT-26 OCT  171/171/171
90 DAY MEAN        23 OCT  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 OCT  002/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT  007/015-007/015-010/012