FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 296
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5200 (N21E16),
CONSISTING OF ALMOST 100 SPOTS AND A LARGE FIELD OF PLAGE,
PRODUCED ALL OF THE C-CLASS SUBFLARES OBSERVED DURING THE
PERIOD. A MODERATE DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS STILL
APPARENT IN THE REGION. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 5206 (S38E61) IS
A SINGLE MATURE SPOT AND DULL PLAGE. SURGING OCCURRED AT
WEST LIMB NEAR REGIONS 5193 (N23W87) AND 5203 (S19W79).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 5200.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES. GENERALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 OCT  166
PREDICTED   23 OCT-25 OCT  164/164/162
90 DAY MEAN        22 OCT  159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 OCT  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  002/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  005/015-005/015-005/015