FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 291
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 17 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5200 (N20E75)
WAS ASSIGNED VERY EARLY IN PERIOD AS SURGING, ACTIVE PROMINENCES
AND FLARES BEGAN OCCURRING. IT MAY BE INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER
REGION EASTSOUTHEAST OF IT TO PROVIDE A RAPID EVOLUTION THROUGH
A MODERATE FLARE-PRODUCING CYCLE. ITS LARGEST EVENT WAS AN M2/0F
FLARE AT 17/0438Z. NO MAJOR RADIO BURSTS NOR SWEEPS ACCOMPANIED
THIS, NOR ANY OF THE OTHER MODERATE FLARES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5200 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY,
AND ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. IT AND
THAT IMMEDIATE EASTNORTHEAST AREA WILL BE THE LOCATION OF ANY
SIGNIFICNANT ACTIVITY. A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS IS EXPECTED AS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY THE PEAK
OF A QUICKER-THAN-USUAL INTERACTIVE LIFE-CYCLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 OCT-20 OCT
CLASS M    90/80/70
CLASS X    25/20/15
PROTON     25/20/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 OCT  178
PREDICTED   18 OCT-20 OCT  185/195/200
90 DAY MEAN        17 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 OCT  008/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 OCT  010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 OCT-20 OCT  016/020-012/020-010/015