FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 290
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE ENHANCED X-RAY BACK-
GROUND LEVEL HAS STABILIZED. MUCH OF THE 2800 MHZ EAST-WEST SCAN
ENERGY IS COMING FROM THE EXTREME EASTNORTHEAST NEAR-LIMB AREA.
NEW REGION 5198 (N29E78) IS THE REMNANTS OF RETURNING REGION
REGION 5159 (N29, L-314). THIS REGION AND THE IMMEDIATE AREA
TO ITS SOUTHEAST PRODUCED MAJOR ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST TOUR.
BRIGHT SURGES OCCURRED FROM ITS GENERAL AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD.
REGIONS 5197 (S17W77) AND 5199 (N33E06) WERE ALSO NUMBERED.
TWO SMALL FILAMENTS DISAPPEARED FROM THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
ONE WAS ON THE BORDER OF A VERY WEAK CORONAL HOLE THAT PASSED
CENTRAL MERIDIAN YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THE CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY IS FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE
THREE DAY PERIOD, AS THE EASTNORTHEAST AREA ROTATES FULLY ONTO
THE DISK. DEPARTING REGION 5195 (S21W89) PROVIDES A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PROTON PRODUCING FLARES THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE, WITH BRIEF STORM CONDITIONS, THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE VERY WEAK CORONAL HOLE. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE
TO UNSETTLED THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
CLASS M    40/45/50
CLASS X    06/07/08
PROTON     06/07/08
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 OCT  155
PREDICTED   17 OCT-19 OCT  150/146/140
90 DAY MEAN        16 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 OCT  005/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  008/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  016/025-016/025-012/020