FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 289
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE FAR EASTNORTHEAST
SECTOR WITH RETURNING REGIONS' 5159 (N29, L-314) AND 5162 (N25,
CAR-316) SITE INCREASED THE X-RAY BACKGROUND LEVEL TODAY. THE
FAR WESTSOUTHWEST SECTOR INCLUDING REGIONS 5186 (S32W76) AND
5195 (S22W79) PRODUCED FREQUENT SURGING AND ENHANCEMENTS MOST
OF THE PERIOD. REGION 5196 (S36E76) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THE EASTNORTHEAST SECTOR PROVIDES A FAIR CHANCE OF MODERATE
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
CLASS M    35/40/45
CLASS X    05/06/07
PROTON     05/06/07
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 OCT  150
PREDICTED   16 OCT-18 OCT  145/140/134
90 DAY MEAN        15 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 OCT  005/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  008/018-010/018-010/015