FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 288
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5175 (S16W98) HAD
ONLY SURGING WITH NO MORE MAJOR ACTIVITY. A VERY FAST CME WAS
REPORTED AT 13/2043Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMB. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGIONS 5194 (N15E63) AND 5195 (S22W62) WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THE NORTHEAST GROUP OF REGIONS PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
A VERY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE 10 MEV PROTON LEVELS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE M6/0N FLARE FROM REGION
5175 AT 13/2033Z OCT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE FIRST DAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE X2/2N FLARE OF 12/0511Z FROM REGION 5175. THE FIELD
SHOULD RECOVER TO RECURRENT ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 OCT  151
PREDICTED   15 OCT-17 OCT  140/138/132
90 DAY MEAN        14 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 OCT  005/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  028/040-024/028-018/015