FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 285
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. TWO C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH WERE FROM REGION 5175 (S16W61).
THE LARGEST OF THE TWO WAS A C2/SN AT 11/0653Z. ISOLATED
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED WITHIN REGION 5188 (N18E64). NO
NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 5175.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
THE STORM LEVELS MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A C9/1N/TYPE II
SWEEP EVENT THAT OCCURRED ON 06 OCTOBER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 OCT  170
PREDICTED   12 OCT-14 OCT  170/170/167
90 DAY MEAN        11 OCT  157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 OCT  053/103
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  015/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  012/022-012/027-016/030