FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 284
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5175
(S17W49) PRODUCED AN M2/SN FLARE AT 10/1827Z. THE FLARE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A 210 SOLAR FLUX UNIT TENFLARE AS WELL AS OTHER
MINOR DISCRETE FREQUENCY BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 09/2352Z.
NEW REGIONS 5187 (S23E27) AND 5188 (N18E73) WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
BOTH REGIONS WERE SIMPLE BIPOLES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 5175.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
VARIED FROM ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE STORM
CONDITIONS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A C9/1N/TYPE II SWEEP EVENT
THAT OCCURRED ON 06 OCTOBER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS TOMORROW. THE
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 OCT-13 OCT
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 OCT  179
PREDICTED   11 OCT-13 OCT  182/184/186
90 DAY MEAN        10 OCT  156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 OCT  016/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT  046/095
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT  025/040-012/025-010/022