FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 283
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5171 (S26W100)
PRODUCED A C4/1F AT 08/2200Z. THIS EVENT WAS FOLLOWED BY A LONG
DURATION X-RAY DECAY OF NEARLY 7 HOURS AND LIMB ACTIVITY OVER
THE REGION. THE CORONAGRAPH ON SMM DID NOT OBSERVE A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION WITH THIS EVENT. ANOTHER C4 FLARE WAS DETECTED
AT 09/2013Z BUT WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 5175
(S16W32) AND 5177 (N25W00) ARE SLOWLY DECAYING. TWO NEW REGIONS
EMERGED ON THE DISK AND WERE NUMBERED AS 5185 (S16W07) AND
5186 (S32E02).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5175.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BECOMING ACTIVE IN THE LATTER HALF. HIGH LATITUDE
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACTIVE WITH A SHORT PERIOD AT
MINOR STORM LEVELS NEAR 09/1330Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MID LATITUDE FIELD
SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR 10 OCT BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY ACTIVE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
CLASS M    25/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 OCT  176
PREDICTED   10 OCT-12 OCT  175/173/171
90 DAY MEAN        09 OCT  156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 OCT  006/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  016/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  015/024-010/020-010/020