FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 282
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR CLASS C
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED.  REGION 5171 (S26W86) IS MAKING A QUIET
LIMB TRANSIT. REGION 5177 (N22E14) AND 5178 WERE COMBINED INTO
SINGLE REGION 5177 SINCE THEY ARE ONE REGION MAGNETICALLY.
REGIONS 5177 AND 5175 (S16W19) WERE STABLE AND OF SIMPLE
MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 5179 (S27W15) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE
AND IS NOW A CLASS D SUNSPOT GROUP. A SMALL CLASS H SPOT ROTATED
AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 5184 (S12E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED CLASS M
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 5171, 5175, AND 5177.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO
ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE AT RECENT LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH
GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT MID LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     10/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 OCT  174
PREDICTED   09 OCT-11 OCT  170/165/162
90 DAY MEAN        08 OCT  156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 OCT  005/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 OCT  007/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 OCT-11 OCT  015/018-010/018-010/020