FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 281
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  ONLY C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES HAVE OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY, MOST OF WHICH
WERE FROM REGION 5175 (S15W05).  THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE LEADER PORTIONS
OF THE SUNSPOT GROUP WHERE A DELTA CONFIGURATION MAY BE
FORMING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS
5175 AND 5177 (N23E21).  ENERGETIC ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5171
(S25W72) IS NOT EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.  A CORONAL HOLE
DISTURBANCE, THOUGH UNLIKELY, MAY BEGIN LATE ON 08 OCTOBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 OCT-10 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 OCT  181
PREDICTED   08 OCT-10 OCT  175/165/155
90 DAY MEAN        07 OCT  155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 OCT  028/040
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT  007/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT  015/020-015/015-010/015