FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 280
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 06 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 5171
(S26W57) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS, A
SF/M1 AT 06/0132Z.  THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY.  REGION
5175 (S15E08) HAS SHOWN A TREND TOWARD INCREASED COMPLEXITY.
NEW REGION 5182 (N13E73) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A
SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 5171, 5175,
AND 5177 (N23E36).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 OCT  188
PREDICTED   07 OCT-09 OCT  175/170/165
90 DAY MEAN        06 OCT  155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 OCT  018/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  025/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  015/025-015/025-015/020