FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 278
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH.  ACTIVITY REMAINED
AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF A X1/2B FLARE AT
03/2336Z FROM REGION 5171 (S25W31).  THIS REGION SEEMS TO HAVE
SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION APPEARS
TO REMAIN.  NEW REGION 5179 (S28E40) EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  REGIONS 5168 (N21W72), 5171, AND 5177 (N24E61) ARE
THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.  ANOTHER
MAJOR FLARE, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS
24 HOURS, IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5171.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 22 NT WAS
OBSERVED AT BOULDER AT 04/2020Z.  THIS MAY BE THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHOCK GENERATED BY THE X3/2B FLARE OF 03/1512Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE X-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OF 03 OCTOBER.
ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 OCT  189
PREDICTED   05 OCT-07 OCT  190/185/175
90 DAY MEAN        04 OCT  154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 OCT  003/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  003/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  015/020-020/040-015/030