FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 277
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH.  ACTIVITY LEVELS
INCREASED TO HIGH AS A RESULT OF A X3/2B FLARE FROM REGION
5171 (S25W19) AT 03/1512Z.  THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RADIO BURST OF 1819 SFU AT 10.7 CM AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP.
NEW REGION 5178 (N29E83) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A
SMALL H-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  REGIONS 5168 (N21W58), 5171, 5175 (S15E47), AND
5177 (N23E71) ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5171.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 5 AND 6 OCTOBER DUE TO
TODAY'S X-CLASS X-RAY FLARE.  ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTONS HAVE
NOT YET ARRIVED AS A RESULT OF THIS FLARE AND ARE NOT NOW
EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 OCT  202
PREDICTED   04 OCT-06 OCT  208/210/205
90 DAY MEAN        03 OCT  153
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 OCT  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT  002/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT  005/015-010/015-015/025