FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 276
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE MAJORITY OF FLARE
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCED BY REGION 5171 (S25W06): THE
GROUP PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C9.4
SUBFAINT AT 0427Z. REGION 5174 (N17W36) ALSO CONTRIBUTED SEVERAL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT GREW AND DEVELOPED SPOTS DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 5175 (S15E61) ROTATED MORE CLEARLY INTO VIEW AND
IS NOW THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK (AREA OF 580). THE GROUP
PRODUCED A C2.3 SUBFLARE AT 0642Z. NEW REGION 5177 (N24E84)
ROTATED INTO VIEW WITH ASSOCIATED LIMB SURGE ACTIVITY AS A
SINGLE H-TYPE SPOT. SURGING WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON THE NORTHWEST
LIMB AS REGIONS 5159 AND 5162 EXITED THE SOLAR DISK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 5171 IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR PRODUCTION OF ENERGETIC EVENTS GIVEN ITS CONTINUED STRENGTH
AND MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SUCH FLARES FROM EACH OF 5168, 5174, AND 5175 SINCE THESE
ARE ALL MATURE GROUPS WITH SOME DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS. BECAUSE
OF THE COMBINED FLARE PROBABILITIES FROM THESE REGIONS THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE (GREATER THAN M5) WHICH COULD
PRODUCE ENERGETIC PROTON ENHANCEMENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH
LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 OCT  195
PREDICTED   03 OCT-05 OCT  195/195/193
90 DAY MEAN        02 OCT  153
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 OCT  009/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  010/015-007/015-005/015