FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 275
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. A M1.8/1N FLARE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 0729Z AND
WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 5162 (N22W88), A SMALL,
UNIMPRESSIVE SUNSPOT GROUP. AN UNASSOCIATED C9.4 FLARE OCCURRED
AT 0122Z. THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE FLARES WERE PRODUCED
BY REGION 5171 (S25E07), THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C5.4/1N AT
1938Z. THIS REGION EVIDENCED A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION
ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IN THE LARGE LEADER DELTA SPOT WAS OBSERVED
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 5168 (N20W31) GREW DURING THE PERIOD
BUT WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE ONLY ONE SUBFLARE. NEW REGION 5175
(S15E72) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A MATURE DKO GROUP. IN ADDITION,
TWO SMALL REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED DURING THE PERIOD: REGION 5174
(N17W23), AND REGION 5176 (N28W63). SURGING WAS OBSERVED ON THE
WEST LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS 5159 (N28W89) AND 5162
(N22W88), AND ON THE EAST LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 5175.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 5168 AND 5171 POSE
THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONTINUED ENERGETIC FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TOMORROW AND PARTWAY THROUGH THE
SECOND DAY WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES.
THIS INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE ENERGETIC FLARE
ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID-
LATITUDES AND TO GENERALLY ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES BY
THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 OCT-04 OCT
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 OCT  179
PREDICTED   02 OCT-04 OCT  178/176/175
90 DAY MEAN        01 OCT  152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 SEP  007/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  012/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  018/035-012/030-007/020