FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 273
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 5171
(S25E34) PRODUCED TWO M FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AN M5.7/3B
AT 28/2312UT AND AN M1.1/1F AT 29/0604UT.  A STRONG TYPE II AND
TYPE IV SWEEP AND A CME WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE M5.7.  GROWTH
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE TRAILER OF REGION 5171 AND A DELTA MAY
BE FORMING IN THE LEADER.  PROPER MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE TRAILER OF REGION 5168 (N19W04) INCREASING THE MAGNETIC
SHEAR IN THIS AREA.  THE LARGE FILAMENT CENTERED NEAR N30W20
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING.  A RADIO NOISE STORM IS IN PROGRESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CLASS M EVENTS
FROM REGION 5171 AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FROM REGION 5168.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP  173
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  167/164/160
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP  153
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 SEP  005/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  010/025-012/025-015/025