FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 265
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. RADIATIONS FROM REGION
5163 (N22E59) AND THE EASTNORTHEAST NEAR-LIMB AREA NEXT TO IT
PROVIDED MUCH OF THE ENHANCED X-RAY AND 10.7CM FLUX BACKGROUNDS.
TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DISK - REGIONS
5164 (N19W23) AND 5165 (N20W11). A LARGE CME OCCURRED AT 210020Z
FROM THE WESTNORTHWEST LIMB. AN ESTIMATED 35DEGREE LONG FILAMENT
DISAPPEARED SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTHNORTHWEST
QUADRANT. ITS APPROXIMATE CENTROID POINT WAS N52W15.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5163 AND THE CLOSE AREA TO THE LIMB PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY. THE ENHANCED BACKGROUND SHOULD STAY
ELEVATED THROUGHTOUT THIS GROUPS' TOUR OF THE DISK. THEY ALSO
PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HIGH ACTIVITY AND/OR PROTON
PRODUCING FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED DUE TO
FLARES AND A WEAK CORONAL HOLE NEAR THE EQUATOR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP  156
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  162/170/178
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP  152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 SEP  009/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  012/024-016/036-014/020