FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 263
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
5159 (N29E71) PRODUCED AN M1/0N FLARE AT 19/1105Z. IT HAS A VERY
SIMPLE SPOT GROUP, AND SUPPORTED NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
SINCE. THE SECOND REGION ASSIGNED TODAY WAS 5160 (S29W79). IT
WAS EMERGING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5159 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
RETURNING REGION 5126 (S22, L=291) IS EXPECTED IN ONE DAY. THE
OVERALL X-RAY AND 10.7 FLUX BACKGROUNDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE RECURRENTLY ACTIVE PORTIONS OF THE
SUN ROTATE INTO VIEW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MINOR STORM TO ACTIVE LEVELS. BRIEF
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WHILE SEVERE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF SEVERAL DISAPPEARING
FILAMENTS OF 13 AND 14 SEP.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 SEP  138
PREDICTED   20 SEP-22 SEP  148/152/157
90 DAY MEAN        19 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 SEP  026/051
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  020/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  016/026-014/018-012/024