FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 260
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NO FLARE ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER, AN UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED
AT 16/0456Z. THERE WERE NO RADIO EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVENT. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 5155 (S17E01),
A SIMPLE BIPOLE, 5156 (S14E70), A D-TYPE GROUP, AND 5157
(S21E44), ANOTHER SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 5142 (N32W40).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES BASED ON THE RECURRENT PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 SEP-19 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 SEP  127
PREDICTED   17 SEP-19 SEP  131/133/137
90 DAY MEAN        16 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 SEP  012/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  009/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  007/020-007/020-010/030