FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 259
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 5142
(N31W28) PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY: A B6/SF FLARE
AT 14/2325Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE III SWEEP BURST.
THREE NEW REGIONS EMERGED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT: 5152
(N34E35), 5153 (N23E27), AND 5154 (N20E49). ALL THREE WERE
SMALL B-TYPE REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF M-CLASS
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5148 (S11E19).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS BECOMING UNSETTLED ON THE FINAL DAY. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BASED ON
THE RECURRENT PATTERN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 SEP  125
PREDICTED   16 SEP-18 SEP  128/131/134
90 DAY MEAN        15 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 SEP  011/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  007/020-007/025-010/020