FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 258
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS A C1/SF FLARE FROM REGION 5148 (S11E32). ISOLATED
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 5137 (S19W52), 5142
(N31W14), AND 5144 (N13W06). NEW REGION 5151 (N24W34) WAS
ASSIGNED TODAY. IT EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 5148.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING OBSERVED AT 0730-0900Z AND 1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE AT HIGH
LATITUDES BASED ON THE RECURRENT PATTERN OF FIELD ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 SEP-17 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 SEP  129
PREDICTED   15 SEP-17 SEP  132/135/138
90 DAY MEAN        14 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 SEP  011/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  007/020-007/020-007/025