FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 257
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE
PERIOD WAS PROVIDED BY REGION 5148 (S11E44). THE REGION PRODUCED
A C4/1N AT 13/0808Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO
EMISSIONS. REGIONS 5142 (N31W01) AND 5149 (S20W24) EACH PRODUCED
A SUBFLARE DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 5150 (N23E07) WAS
ASSIGNED TODAY. IT EMERGED AS A SMALL UNIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 5148.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES WITH A BRIEF INTERVAL OF MINOR STORMING
NEAR 13/0600Z. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO
SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMING OCCURRED
FROM 13/0430-0600Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF
CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE AT THE
HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 SEP  122
PREDICTED   14 SEP-16 SEP  125/128/131
90 DAY MEAN        13 SEP  150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 SEP  015/036
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  010/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  007/020-007/018-007/020