FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 251
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED. THOSE WITH OPTICAL CORRELATIONS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 5131 (S21W70). SURGING WAS OBSERVED
ON THE WEST LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 5126 (S25), REGION
5128 (N20) AND REGION 5129 (S13). A NEW REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAY'S EAST LIMB SURGE ACTIVITY, ROTATED INTO VIEW
AT N32E80 AS A SIMPLE BIPOLAR GROUP AND WAS ASSIGNED SESC
REGION NUMBER 5142. REGION 5136 (N16W69) RE-EMERGED WITH
SPOTS AND DEVELOPED PENUMBRA ON LEADER AND FOLLOWER SPOTS
BUT WAS NOT OBSERVED TO PRODUCE ANY ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO VERY LOW. REGION 5131 WILL START TO EXIT THE DISK LATE
TOMORROW AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOLAR ACTIVITY AND FLUX LEVELS
WILL DECLINE NOTICEABLY AT THAT TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS
AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE THIRD
DAY AS A CORONAL HOLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION
AT THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 SEP  143
PREDICTED   08 SEP-10 SEP  138/128/125
90 DAY MEAN        07 SEP  150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 SEP  002/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  010/015-012/015-016/020