FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 250
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 06 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY A FEW C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD AND ALL OF THOSE
WHICH WERE OBSERVED OPTICALLY WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 5131
(S22W57). REGION 5126 (S21 WEST LIMB) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY
AS IT ROTATED OUT OF VIEW. ADDITIONAL SURGING WAS REPORTED
ON THE EAST LIMB AT ABOUT N33. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED ON
THE DISK TODAY: REGION 5140 (S27W21) AND REGION 5141 (N19W12).
BOTH WERE SMALL A-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 5131 WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF VIEW ON
09 SEPTEMBER AND IT IS EXPECTED THE SOLAR ACTIVITY AND FLUX
LEVELS WILL DECLINE NOTICEABLY AT THAT TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. AT HIGH
LATITUDES THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS BECAME MOSTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES ON THE FIRST DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TO UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS DUE TO RECURRENT
EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 SEP  150
PREDICTED   07 SEP-09 SEP  140/135/125
90 DAY MEAN        06 SEP  151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 SEP  002/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP  002/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP  007/015-012/015-015/020