FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 246
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 5131 (S20W06)
PRODUCED BUT A FEW C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST A C3/0F AT 0803Z.
NO OTHER FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE DISK ITSELF
WAS IN A GENERAL STATE OF DECAY AS EVIDENCED BY A 13 FLUX UNIT
DECREASE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE OTTAWA 10 CM. FLUX. THE WHOLE
SUN BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX WAS DOWN AS WELL. NO NEW REGION WAS
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.  OCCASIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY MAY STEM FROM REGION 5131
AND REGION 5128 (N22W29). M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  HIGH LATITUDE SITES OBSERVED ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS WITH AN INTERVAL OF MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS
AROUND 0730Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  EXPECT SHORT-LIVED
SUBSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 SEP-05 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 SEP  176
PREDICTED   03 SEP-05 SEP  172/168/163
90 DAY MEAN        02 SEP  150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 SEP  015/039
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP  010/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP  010/020-005/020-010/025