FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 245
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY PERSISTS AT LOW LEVELS. PERIODIC
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 5128 (N22W16) AND 5131
(S20E08). THE DAY'S MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A C6/0B FROM
REGION 5131 AT 2054Z. ANOTHER FLARE OF NOTE WAS A C3/0F WITH
ASSOCIATED TYPE II - SHOCK SPEED ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1000 TO
1600 K/S - FROM REGION 5128 AT 1849Z. ALL SPOTTED REGIONS COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION 5133 (N26E59) IS SMALL AND SIMPLE. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS STILL A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FROM REGIONS 5128 AND 5131.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES WERE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE DISTURBANCE WAS MOST SEVERE
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS IN EACH CASE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  SUBSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 SEP  189
PREDICTED   02 SEP-04 SEP  189/191/189
90 DAY MEAN        01 SEP  150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 31 AUG  010/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  017/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  010/020-010/020-005/020