FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 244
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 31 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES LOW. REGION 5128 (N22W03)
ASSUMED THE ROLE OF THE LEADING FLARE PRODUCER.  IT GENERATED
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY, THE LARGEST A C4/1F AT 0511Z.  THE
REGION HAS GROWN SUBSTANTIALLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA.
REGION 5131 (S19E21) REMAINS COMPLEX AND OMINOUS BUT HAS BEEN
MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD.  NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
THERE IS AN AREA OF EMERGING FLUX NEAR N25E75, HOWEVER, WHERE
POSSIBLY TWO SMALL BIPOLES ARE ROTATING INTO VIEW. SURGING
OCCURRED NEAR N15W90 WHERE REGION 5115 IS NOW LOCATED.  THERE
WAS A REPORT OF A RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ OF 230 F.U. AT 1642Z.
THAT BURST HAD NO X-RAY OR OPTICAL COUNTERPART AND MAY HAVE BEEN
AFFECTED BY INTERFERENCE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
EITHER REGION 5131 OR 5128.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED GENERALLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WITH INTERVALS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 AUG  190
PREDICTED   01 SEP-03 SEP  192/192/189
90 DAY MEAN        31 AUG  150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 AUG  010/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  008/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  010/020-010/020-010/020

                *****  PLEASE NOTE  *****

EFFECTIVE 1 SEPTEMBER 1988, SESC WILL BE USING THE
FOLLOWING DEFINITIONS FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY LEVELS:

   VERY LOW  =  X-RAY EVENTS LESS THAN CLASS-C
   LOW       =  C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
   MODERATE  =  ISOLATED (1-4) M-CLASS EVENTS
   HIGH      =  SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M-CLASS EVENTS OR
                ISOLATED M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS
   VERY HIGH =  SEVERAL M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS.