FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 242
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5131 (S19E47)
IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AND PRODUCTIVE REGION ON THE DISK.  IT
CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS, BRIGHT PLAGE, AND EMBEDDED
FILAMENTS.  MAGNETICALLY IT WARRANTS THE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA
DELTA CLASSIFICATION.  THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C9/1N - MAX
AT 1553Z - WAS AMONG THE FIVE FLARES GENERATED BY THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. OTHER NOTEWORTHY REGIONS ARE 5126 (S23E18)
AND 5128 (N21E23).  BOTH OF THESE HAVE BEEN DYNAMIC DURING THE
INTERVAL.  WEAK SURGING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT WEST LIMB NEAR N20
WHERE REGION 5127 IS NOW POSITIONED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  REGION 5131 IS THE LEADING CANDIDATE FOR
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE
AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  A NARROW EAST-WEST
ORIENTED CORONAL HOLE CENTERED NEAR N35W35 SHOULD KEEP
ACTIVITY AT THESE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 AUG  185
PREDICTED   30 AUG-01 SEP  189/188/185
90 DAY MEAN        29 AUG  149
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 AUG  008/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  010/022-010/020-010/018

      *************       PLEASE NOTE      **********

EFFECTIVE 1 SEPTEMBER 1988, SESC WILL BE USING THE FOLLOWING
DEFINITIONS FOR SOLAR ACIVITY LEVELS:

     VERY LOW  = X-RAY EVENTS LESS THAN C-CLASS
     LOW       = C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
     MODERATE  = ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M-CLASS EVENTS
     HIGH      = SEVERAL ( 5 OR MORE ) M-CLASS EVENTS OR
                 ISOLATED (1 TO 4) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS
     VERY HIGH = SEVERAL (5 OR MORE) M5 OR GREATER X-RAY EVENTS.