FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 239
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5126 (S23E53)
PRODUCED AN M1/0F EVENT AT 26/1124Z WITH A WEAK TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP. THIS REGION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS LAST DAY.
NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5128 (N21E59) WAS AN HSX TYPE. THE OTHER
NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5129 (S14E74) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A DAO
TYPE. REGION 5125 (N29E55) PRODUCED NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS BUT
APPARENTLY IS REFORMING FILAMENTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5126 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY,
AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY. REGION 5125 STILL
PROVIDES A CHANCE OF BOTH A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE AND HIGH
ACTIVITY DUE TO ITS APPARENT REFORMATION OF FILAMENTS LINKED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. STORM PERIODS
OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A
10 MEV PROTON EVENT STARTED AT 26/0010Z AND ENDED AT 26/1000Z.
ITS PEAK WAS 42 P/SQ.CM-S-SR AT 0045Z. ITS PROBABLE SOURCE WAS
THE M2 LDXE WITH CME OF 23/1804Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 AUG  153
PREDICTED   27 AUG-29 AUG  162/172/163
90 DAY MEAN        26 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 AUG  014/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  014/026-012/020-012/018